We live in dangerous times, marked by the chaotic and rapid emergence of a New World Order. It is impossible to predict the outcomes, as new developments emerge every day. Yet one thing is clear: we risk a terrifying future of escalating deadly conflict, and even if that is avoided, we still face looming threats of climate collapse, economic turmoil, and new antagonistic geopolitical blocs.
But another future is possible. It hinges on the EU finding the courage and vision to be the global bloc willing to champion a credible green transition and an agenda of hope. We need Europe to stand firmly on the rule of law, human rights and justice and foster healthy democracies. In these times, we particularly need the EU to support multilateral governance; and to practice international solidarity and cooperation, facing our historic responsibilities and becoming a true and genuine partner, based on fairness and equality.
We, of course, have to prepare for all possible scenarios to be “future proof”. But this doesn’t mean having to descend into a dystopian fate combining George Orwell’s 1984 and Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale.
By Patrick ten Brink, Toni Vidan, Patrizia Heidegger, Faustine Bas-Defossez, Andriy Andrusevych and Christian Skrivervik
Friends no longer
When the new US administration team openly meddled in European affairs – by supporting the far right AfD in the German elections, demanding that Greenland become part of the US, opposing the application of the rule of law after a high profile French politician and her team were convicted for embezzling European Parliament funds, performing a volte-face from supporting Ukraine to echoing Russian rhetoric, levying trade tariffs on Europe and other traditional allies, and using language about the EU leaked Signal chats that no true friend would – it became impossible to think anything but this: the US is no longer a reliable partner, let alone friend, to the EU and Europe. As a former NATO official said, the US is no longer an ally of Europe. This is a geopolitical tectonic shift.
President Trump’s claim that the EU was created “to screw the US” is more than eccentric – it is revealing. The facts suggest that the US administration and the supporting far right ideological think tanks and media outlets are actively out to undermine the EU, a conclusion seemingly corroborated by reports of the US Heritage Foundation (the far right “think tank” behind Project 2025) meeting with far-right groups in Europe with a stated aim not only of undermining the EU project, but dismantling it.
The only possible conclusion is that the EU must unite, chart its own path to defend itself from outside interference, and build stronger partnerships across the world with allies sharing a vision of democracy, sustainability, human rights and justice.
War and Peace
The illegal Russian aggression against Ukraine continues its destruction, bloodshed and attempts to undermine a sovereign nation and its people – a people Europe must continue to stand firmly behind, especially given the shifting global context. Intelligence services warn that a Russian attack on EU soil could happen within five years. Europe is stepping up to guarantee Ukraine’s security, while political priorities and narratives are shifting to defence, to ReArm Europe, and the EU’s Readiness 2030 plan. The war and the US’s withdrawal of support for Ukraine are bringing Europe closer together, even as internal and external forces work to undermine it.
The war, change of US stance and the looming threat of Russian aggression are driving a fundamental shift in the EU’s thinking on security, sovereignty, and even traditional red lines such as the debt ceilings in Germany. Beyond Europe, the global landscape is also darkening: the number of armed conflicts worldwide has doubled in the last five years. In addition to the daily documented tragedies in Europe and the Middle East, there are also far too many less well-documented bloody conflicts – in Sudan, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mali, Myanmar, and others. In 2024 alone, at least 233,000 people were killed in armed conflicts, with Ukraine, Gaza and the West Bank reporting the highest numbers of casualties. Global military spending reached a new peak of just over $2.7 trillion, according to SIPRI — marking the steepest rise since the end of the Cold War.
This evolving security narrative, however, carries real risks. As attention and funds flow toward rearming Europe, pressure is growing to scale back climate and environmental spending. Calls to weaken or undo the European Green Deal (EGD) have intensified. Yet this is a dangerous mistake: the Green Deal is essential for Europe’s security and for achieving Readiness 2030. Accelerating decarbonisation is not just a climate imperative; it directly supports energy independence from hostile powers like Russia. Today, money keeps flowing into the Kremlin’s war coffers as EU countries still spend more on Russian fossil fuels than on supporting Ukraine. This is strategically unsound and dangerously short-sighted. Europe must urgently shift to fossil fuel independence via renewable energy, energy efficiency and energy sufficiency roll out, supported by investments in a smarter, stronger and more interconnected and resilient European electricity grid.
The energy transition should also lead to saving Europe huge amounts otherwise spent on fossil fuel imports and bring prices down. Furthermore, fast-tracking circular economy measures will reduce dependence on imported materials, weaken others’ ability to weaponise fuel, materials and supply chains, and make supply chains more resilient. The same goes for sustainable food and farming: cutting reliance on Russian fertilisers and improving local, sustainable food systems and healthy diets strengthens Europe’s security, notably by decreasing the need for imports of proteins for animal feed. Delivering the European Green Deal is not a luxury; it is a necessity. Undermining it will weaken, not strengthen, Europe’s security.
Security is understandably the dominant political focus. But security is much more than military security. It includes protecting our societies from misinformation and disinformation – identified as the top security risk in the next two years (see below). It is also about safeguarding human security: shielding citizens from climate impacts, pollution, harmful chemicals, and health crises. It means ensuring access to affordable healthcare, preserving mental and physical health through nature access, and embracing the one-health approach that connects the wellbeing of people, animals, and the planet.
The cascading crises that will be unleashed through runaway greenhouse effect, ecosystem collapse, and uncontrolled pollution and harmful chemicals will far outweigh the security challenges leaders are struggling with today. As Germany’s Foreign Minister has rightly said, “The climate crisis is the greatest security threat of our time.”
The growing security narrative must take all threats into account and must recognise that the Green Deal is not an obstacle to security, but its foundation. The current temptations to embrace “pragmatism” or “flexibility” that would weaken the proposed 90% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by 2040 must be firmly resisted.
Trade Wars and Competitiveness
Before the recent geopolitical upheavals and intensifying trade wars, the dominant narrative in the EU centred on competitiveness. But today, that concept is being redefined. Under the new US administration, competitiveness is being pursued through tearing up environmental and social protections, backtracking from global climate commitments, slashing support for renewable energies, and stepping towards becoming an aggressive petrostate. Key institutions are being gutted, from the civil service to the judiciary, while international cooperation is being eroded. Meanwhile, tariffs are being weaponised to fund tax cuts and shield domestic industries from global competition.
This is a destructive model — ethically, financially, diplomatically. It is not one Europe can afford to follow, and it flies in the face of common sense. And quite simply, our values and what kind of civilisation we want to be. Undermining the rule of law, pushing for deregulation, and weakening legal frameworks will only deepen environmental degradation, increase human suffering, and if the rule of law can’t be trusted, to a breakdown of confidence in doing business in the EU. Where is predictability and legal certainty in an unravelling legal framework? Europe risks becoming a far less attractive place to invest or innovate.
China offers another model: one of strategic long-term planning, low wages, massive state aid, and investments in renewable energies, wider clean technologies , combined with strict state control of technology, trade and society. There is an impressive level of investment and roll out of clean electricity, battery storage and grids – demonstrating a strategic choice in favour clean tech, which made up more than 10% of the Chinese economy in 2024. Clean tech investment was estimated to be behind 40% of GDP growth in China in 2023.
But China’s model comes with major costs. The country is riddled by severe environmental problems stemming from its continued use of fossil fuels, resource extraction and rapid economic growth, which undermine public health and the long-term sustainability of its model. China is not only the largest global emitter of CO2, but environmental challenges also include drastic levels of air, water and soil pollution, and struggles to deal with massive amounts of domestic and imported waste. China also needs to rapidly shift to a sustainable food system as it needs to feed 20% of the world’s population with only 10% of arable land. China is dependent on raw material imports, for instance, from Africa, to feed the material needs of its economy.
Europe must chart its own course — one that is neither the US model of deregulated extractivism nor the Chinese model of state-heavy authoritarianism, massive subsidies and low wages. The EU can and should stay true to its own strengths: building on carefully designed, science-based and democratically negotiated regulation that drives innovation while providing social and environmental protections. This must be paired with investments in research, education and key public infrastructure, confidence in the rule of law and respect for human rights, strong democratic institutions and taking a long-term strategic view of system change by realising the objectives of the Green Deal, a clean industrial deal and other commitments.
More concretely, the new EU Budget (the multi-annual financial framework, MFF) being negotiated now, if designed right, can be a key tool to signal support and catalyse progress. Europe urgently needs significant investment in clean tech, and to develop new technologies, make them accessible and ensure autonomy. Part of the current proposal is to have a Competitiveness Fund (the second pillar); this should be renamed a Clean Competitiveness Fund (CCF) to give a clear signal of commitment and coherence with the Clean Industrial Deal. Clarity, coherence and predictability build confidence for industry and citizens.
The EU should also strengthen diplomacy and partnerships – both because it is an investment in a better world order and because it helps with the EU’s needs. The EU needs robust and fair partnerships, active and effective diplomacy, and should show palpable solidarity with other nations. This builds trust and is not only right in itself. It will build resilience and an ability to face the future and face up to those wishing us ill in an increasingly volatile world.
The Weaponisation of Disinformation
Disinformation has become the new norm, underpinning political interference and fuelling bias. It is no longer merely a tool to mislead, but a deliberate strategy to exhaust, confuse, and erode public trust. The goal of “flooding the zone” with constant lies is not to make people believe them all – but to make it impossible to believe anything at all. When the line between fact and fiction blurs, trust in experts, the press, institutions – and ultimately democracy – begins to unravel. This benefits authoritarian actors who thrive on division, polarisation, and cynicism.
Today, words are often used not to convey meaning or build mutual understanding, but for impact alone. Disinformation has become a staple of political discourse, weaponised by self-interested, malign actors to manipulate, distract, and destabilise. It is now also part of a geopolitical playbook.
Russia, a study has estimated, spent $2-4 billion a year on climate disinformation and propaganda in Poland, as part of a “long-term cognitive war” to sow division. Hence the priority given by the Polish EU Presidency to this issue, with urgent discussions at the informal meeting of environmental ministers in Warsaw on 28-29 April. If billions are being spent to influence one country alone, what are the sums for Europe as a whole? And the influence? It is clearly in Russia’s interest that the EU does not step away from fossil fuels.
The stakes are high. To unpack how important disinformation on climate change is: in a recent survey, public desire for climate action was shown to be deep and global: 89% of people worldwide want their governments to do more to fight global warming. Yet this overwhelming public support is being buried by a wave of mis- and disinformation, responsible for the troubling and misleading “spiral of silence” that muffles both facts and public will.
Climate denialism and delay, powered by disinformation, contribute directly to policy paralysis, even as extreme weather events surge. In fact, the World Economic Forum has identified disinformation as the greatest global risk over the next two years, followed by extreme weather events, which it also lists as the greatest threat in the medium term. If the risks of the collapse of the Gulf Stream comes true, as forty two climate scientists warn, then this is beyond anything we can hope to adapt to. Disinformation makes this risk an ever more probable reality, accelerating the very threats we must urgently prevent. A dystopia and not fiction.
The scientifically established risk of collapse of the Gulf Stream (known by academics as the AMOC) explodes a dangerous, creeping misperception of choice. It is also another example of the dangers of misinformation. Some voices are pushing the argument that climate mitigation is too hard; that we should simply adapt. We do not have that choice. It is not a case of mitigate or adapt. We need both. The less we mitigate, the more pain and disruption our societies and economies will face. The pain at 1.5, 2, 3 degrees and beyond are at completely different levels, and there are ever greater limitations as to how far we can adapt and protect ourselves, with ever more unavoidable and painful consequences for much of society and the economy. We should not allow ourselves to be convinced that adaptation means we don’t need to mitigate emissions as fast as possible. That would be giving in to misinformation. We should also not be tempted by the thought that the crisis is inevitable, so why not just live a bit. That, too, is a dangerous oversimplification. Every action today will make a difference. What we do or don’t do today will define the scale of the crisis for next year and next generations.
It is essential to face the facts and to stay resolute on the 2040 target and decarbonisation commitments, while at the same time investing as much as possible in resilience and adaptation measures – and make sure the promised European Climate Adaptation Plan has heft. We also need to communicate clearly the opportunities for and benefits of action, as well as the costs of inaction to inform decisions. Anything else is simply irresponsible. Furthermore, we cannot give people a false sense of security by saying that we can adapt to climate change and don’t need to do as much now. That would erode their agency and their trust.
The state-driven use of disinformation builds on decades of corporate capture and manipulation. From Big Tobacco to Big Oil and more recently chemical companies trying to avoid responsibilities for PFAS (the “forever chemicals” links to multiple health risks) as exposed by the Forever Lobbying Project, the tactics are well known: delay, distract, deny. Today, also environmental citizens organisations, including our own, are increasingly targeted by, and the victims of, disinformation campaigns attempting to undermine the role of civil society in transparent, democratic decision-making.
The EU needs to track where disinformation is used by whom, using what tools, for what purpose and supported by which players using what channels – following the money and meetings to get to the root responsible. Transparency is essential. Exploring who is truly behind the disinformation-fuelled attacks on civil society, with what ultimate objective, would be an important immediate step.
The Green Deal and civil society a first target
False information, by Russia, vested interests and domestic political forces, has also been used within the EU to undermine the Green Deal file by file with misleading arguments, with one party even referring to Santa Claus to make its point. Why not use actual evidence?
It is also political within Europe, with false arguments used by some in the EPP and the far right, seeking to undermine civil society and the Green Deal. The attacks are not about transparency, but about stopping critical voices and undermining the Green Deal, and about the next steps to a future we don’t want. Disinformation is a tool to erode democracy.
We need EU leadership to engage in a coordinated resistance to disinformation and recognise the authoritarian playbook behind the attacks on civil society.
The attacks on civil society are a first step in the authoritarian playbook
The EEB, as many other civil society organisations, has faced an onslaught of attacks for receiving EU funding to carry out our missions, as noted in our long-term strategy and 2025 Annual Work Programme set by our 187 members across 41 countries. These EEB documents outline transparently what we want to achieve – reducing risks to human health by policies avoiding exposure to pollution and chemicals such as PFAS, promoting safe, reliable and repairable products, protecting nature and the ecosystems upon which we all rely, mitigating climate change to avoid storms, floods, fires, heatwaves and loss of coastlines and community, and supporting the access to justice. We have been making the case for progressive policies in society’s interest for 50 years. We are not told what to do when the Commission agrees to support our work programme; we are enabled to do what we’d said we do, following the mandate given by our membership across the region.
It won’t stop at attacks on civil society. Looking at the playbook of authoritarian regimes – undermining civil society’s critical voice through undermining their funding or seeking to discredit them is a standard early move. Restricting the peaceful right to protest is another, as are measures to restrict the legal roles of civil society, leading to a shrinking civil society space in many countries.
Cutting back on information, such as on monitoring emissions, is another tactic. This reduces the risks of protest and of government or corporate criticism. With less information, or blurred lines between facts and fiction, the more difficult it is to make a case for legislation or to make a legal case stick. The press is another well-known target, as are the institutions, under the guise of de-bureaucratisation. Weakening the judiciary for political advantage is yet another. Rights to a fair trial and access to justice are at risk. Concrete measures to undermine the rights to vote are also part of the playbook. We all know the list, but don’t think it could happen in Europe. Look closely, in many countries, this has already been happening. There are signs that it is already happening in and to the EU institutions.
Look at the interests behind the attacks on civil society and ask yourself: where are the real problems, the real crisis, the real newsworthy stories? If you doubt the facts and arguments above, just look at the stated aim of one of the Patriot MEPs: ‘“taking down the cultural NGO-industrial complex” .
Instead of being vilified for pushing for a better future, civil society should be recognised as part of a democracy shield, part of what makes European democracy resilient, and should be systematically supported. Civil society serves as a crucial counterweight to much more powerful interests: corporate lobbies focused on short-term profits, foreign influence on EU policies pushed by geopolitical interests, and those political forces who seek to protect the status quo instead of having the courage to ensure progress, future resilience and sustainability. Only people who are not confident of their facts and positions fear the voice of criticism, whether from the press, civil society or citizen.
We ask EU institutions and governments to do more to protect democracy, institutions, values and ways of working across the EU – civil society is critically important to amplify people’s voice and protect European democracy and make better decisions. Engage with civil society and all actors and institutions at risk to stop the authoritarian playbook that has no place in Europe.
In addition, be extra careful about where the current commitment to simplify reporting focuses – ensure that the next omnibus packages don’t go far beyond simplification and embrace deregulation under a different name. Ensure also that reducing monitoring and reporting requirements don’t erode the facts available for citizens, companies, authorities, inspectors and criminal courts. Missing information will just embolden those pushing mis- or disinformation with wider agendas in mind.
We should have learnt the lessons from fascism and the Second World War, as well as modern authoritarian playbooks. The next dystopia can still be avoided.
Embrace an Agenda of Hope
The Green Deal is still alive, but deeply undermined by disinformation, political ideology, vested interests, false arguments, insufficient attention to science, culture wars and short-termism. While political appetite has been waning, the need hasn’t. The triple climate-nature-pollution crisis and impacts on people are very, very real. We need a green and social deal for a one-planet economy – for our health and wellbeing, for security, for democracy. We need a positive agenda of hope.
Yes, the way forward requires being there for EU companies to make the transition and sell clean, safe and sustainable products – they need to be required to do so, and they should be supported so that they can thrive on that business model. The way forward also requires a fundamental shift in ensuring social justice – overcoming inequalities at their roots and ensuring that all parts of society benefit from, and have agency to be part of, the transition. This includes finally achieving gender equality, recognising and tackling climate and environmental injustices – where some parts of societies bear a disproportionate burden of environmental and climate degradation – as well as redistributing wealth that is abundant but very unequally shared.
The EU, Member States and cities should support affordable and sustainable housing for all, with solar panels on roofs and balconies, home insulation and heat pumps, affordable public transport, clean water at the tap, safe and clean and repairable products on the shelves, affordable nutritious food in our shops and on our plates. Our European Pact for the Future offers some ideas from civil society, in consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, on practical ways forward. Europe needs to build on and go beyond the Green Deal and create a fuller, constructive vision that puts youth and next generations at its heart, embraces ethics and justice, and drives transformative system change while adding to Europe’s security and resilience.
Become a beacon of hope at this turning point in history
The world is at a turning point of history. The EU is now the only global bloc which can present a credible green transition agenda of hope and work with partners across the globe. The EU should stand up for the rule of law, for multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) and global governance, the fight on mis- and disinformation, support civil society, strong institutions and democracy, engage in partnerships in solidarity with other countries and embrace our own global responsibilities.
The current chaos can make and dictate the EU’s future, or the EU can decide to make history and lead with hope and vision.
We are not being alarmist; we (as many others) are sounding the alarm on Europe’s future and wider global chaos and asking the EU to take a clear stance and become a beacon of hope in a chaotic, conflict-ridden world, and work with partners to resist the forces pushing dystopia.
There is no future in becoming another copy of the US, China or Russia by rolling back the Green Deal and investing into fossil fuels and weapons. The choice for Europe – of whether to resist the influence of other geopolitical power-blocs, and choose to become the global bloc championing a credible green transition and provide an agenda of hope, will shape the history of humanity: we can blink and face a dystopian future, or build a prosperous, healthy society based on a green, climate neutral, and innovative economy open to like-minded partners.
